MLB Playoff Odds

Projected from 10,000 simulations of the remaining 2026 season, using each team's current Elo rating as of September 8, 2026. Elo is held static for the simulation — it doesn't update game-to-game within a single run. Format: 3 division winners + 3 wild cards per league.

Odds

# Team Elo Record Proj W/L Playoff % Division %
1 Boston Red Sox 1591 80-65 91-71 100.0% 4.4%
2 Los Angeles Dodgers 1552 87-57 98-64 100.0% 99.9%
3 Atlanta Braves 1557 85-59 95-67 100.0% 82.8%
4 New York Yankees 1553 81-62 92-70 100.0% 16.6%
5 Milwaukee Brewers 1572 89-56 99-63 100.0% 99.9%
6 Tampa Bay Rays 1552 85-58 95-67 100.0% 79.0%
7 Philadelphia Phillies 1581 81-63 91-71 99.4% 17.2%
8 Chicago White Sox 1522 75-68 86-76 96.8% 90.8%
9 Chicago Cubs 1528 81-64 90-73 96.1% 0.1%
10 Houston Astros 1514 73-71 82-80 84.9% 84.0%
11 Toronto Blue Jays 1550 72-73 82-80 56.7% 0.0%
12 San Diego Padres 1538 76-68 87-75 52.7% 0.1%
13 Arizona Diamondbacks 1549 77-68 87-75 51.3% 0.0%
14 Cleveland Guardians 1488 73-72 81-81 38.4% 9.1%
15 Texas Rangers 1471 71-73 79-83 13.3% 9.9%
16 Seattle Mariners 1462 67-77 77-85 6.4% 6.1%
17 Baltimore Orioles 1491 70-75 77-85 2.4% 0.0%
18 Minnesota Twins 1451 68-76 77-85 0.9% 0.1%
19 St. Louis Cardinals 1479 72-73 80-82 0.3% 0.0%
20 Detroit Tigers 1448 66-78 74-88 0.1% 0.0%
21 Pittsburgh Pirates 1506 71-73 80-82 0.1% 0.0%
22 Miami Marlins 1477 72-73 79-83 0.1% 0.0%
23 Cincinnati Reds 1495 69-75 76-86 0.0% 0.0%
24 San Francisco Giants 1444 60-85 67-95 0.0% 0.0%
25 Athletics 1419 58-87 65-97 0.0% 0.0%
26 Los Angeles Angels 1384 54-90 61-101 0.0% 0.0%
27 New York Mets 1527 66-78 75-87 0.0% 0.0%
28 Kansas City Royals 1489 64-81 72-90 0.0% 0.0%
29 Washington Nationals 1418 67-79 74-89 0.0% 0.0%
30 Colorado Rockies 1400 55-88 62-100 0.0% 0.0%